Well, maybe. Maybe not. I think It might be so much statistical noise.
The Centers for Disease Control released its annual batch of smoking statistics and they are somewhat contradictory.
On the one hand, on a state-by-state breakdown, the smoking rate has gone down in most states -- and dramatically in the case of several states.
But, overall, according to the CDC, the smoking rate has gone up slightly nationwide -- from 19.8 percent in 2007 to 20.6 percent in 2008.
Here's why I don't get *too* upset. There is a margin for error in these statistics. They are based on an annual survey of 40,000 people, which means it isn't exact. This "increase" of 0.8 percent could be just numbers tweaking out different from year to year.
For instance, that 19.8 percent smoking rate in 2007? The statistical margin for error is actually 19.0 to 20.6 percent.
The 20.6 smoking rate in 2008? The statistical margin for error is 19.9 to 21.4 percent. There is a statistical overlap of 0.07 percent between the two surveys. I suspect in reality, very little has changed with the smoking rate over the last two years.
Even so, it's not the best of news. It breaks a several-year trend of the smoking rate consistently dropping each year. I blame lack of funding for tobacco education programs -- and money from the 1998 settlement with Big Tobacco that was *supposed* to be spent for tobacco education being spent on balancing state budgets instead. At best, this is a flattening out of the smoking rate.
An area that did see an increase is people living below the poverty level. In 2007, that smoking rate was 28.4 percent. In 2008, it went up to 31.5 percent. That 3 percent jump is probably more than just statistical "noise."
One bright sign is a drop in the smoking rate for people aged 18-24Again, there is a huge correlation between smoking rates and education. Each year's survey shows a consistent tie.
The smoking rate for college grads dropped from 11.4 percent to 10.6 percent, and for people with graduate degrees, it dropped from 6.2 percent to 5.7 percent.
However, for people with just 9-11 years of high school education (basically, we're talking about dropouts), it increased from 33.3 percent to 35.7 percent. For people with GEDs, the smoking rate remained high at 41.3 percent.
State smoking rates
Here's where the stats don't gibe with the national stats. The smoking rates in most states has dropped, so I'm not sure which stats to believe. There are 32 states total that have smoking rates below 20 percent.
Here in Montana, the overall smoking rate dropped from 19.5 to 18.5 percent. Montana is an odd state in that the smoking rate for men (18.7 percent) and women (18.4 percent) is virtually identical. In most states, men are several percentage points higher.
The lowest state was again Utah at 9.2 percent. West Virginia now has the highest smoking rate in the nation at 26.6 percent, passing Kentucky for that dubious honour.
This is interesting. In several states that have recently passed smoking bans, there has been in places dramatic decreases in smoking rates. In New Jersey, the smoking rate was only 14.8 percent, down from 17.2 percent in 2007. In Maryland, the smoking rate was only 14.9 percent, down from 17.1 percent in 2007. Ohio, for all of its yelling and screaming on the Internet over smoking bans, has seen its smoking rate drop from 23.1 percent to 20.2 percent.
In Virginia, headquarters of Philip Morris, the smoking rate is just 16.5 percent, down from 18.6 percent in 2007. In North Carolina, headquarters of RJ Reynolds, the smoking rate from from 22.9 percent in 2007 to 20.9 percent in 2008.
To reiterate, these are all states with recent smoking bans.
Indiana might have had the biggest increase, from 24.1 percent in 2007 to 26.1 percent in 2008. Indiana has no smoking ban.